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New England Journal of Medicine 322 (1990): 1162–64.

–. Letter to the editor. New England Journal of Medicine 323 (1990): 923. http://www.nejm.org/doi/pdfyi0.1056/NEJM199009273231320.

–. “On the Belief That Arthritis Pain Is Related to the Weather.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 93, no. 7 (1996): 2895–96. http//www.pnas.org/content/93/7/2895.full.pdf.

Tversky, Amos, and Daniel Kahneman. “Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.” Science 185 (1974): 1124–31.

Глава 9. Рождение боевых психологов

Allais, Maurice. “Le Comportement de l'homme ration nel devant le risque: critique des postulate et axiomes de lecole americaine.” Econometrica 21, no. 4 (1953): 503–46. English summary: httpstfgoo.gl/cUvOVb.

Bernoulli, Daniel. “Specimen Theoriae Novae de Mensura Sortis,” Commentarii Academiae Scientiarum Imperialis Petropolitanae, Tomus V [Papers of the Imperial Academy of Sciences in Petersburg, Vol. V], 1738, 175–92. Dr. Louise Sommer of American University did apparently the first translation into English: for Econometrica 22, no. 1 (1954): 23–36. See also Savage (1954) and Coombs, Dawes, and Tversky (1970).

Coombs, Clyde H., Robyn M. Dawes, and Amos Tversky. Mathematical Psychology: An Elementary Introduction. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1970.

Kahneman, Daniel. Thinking, Fast and Slow. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011. The Jack and Jill scenario in chapter 9 of the present book is from p. 275 of the hardcover edition.

von Neumann, John, and Oskar Morgenstern. Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1944; 2nd ed., 1947.

Savage, Leonard J. The Foundations of Statistics. New York: Wiley, 1954.

Глава 10. Эффект изоляции

Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk.” Econometrica 47, no. 2 (1979): 263–91.

Глава 11. Правила отмены

Hobson, J. Allan, and Robert W. McCarley. “The Brain as a Dream State Generator: An Activation-Synthesis Hypothesis of the Dream Process.” American Journal of Psychiatry 134, no. 12 (1977): 1335–48.

–. “The Neurobiological Origins of Psychoanalytic Dream Theory.” American Journal of Psychiatry 134, no. 11 (1978): 1211–21.

Kahneman, Daniel. “The Psychology of Possible Worlds.” Katz-Newcomb Lecture, April 1979.

Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. “The Simulation Heuristic.” In Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, edited by Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky, 3–22. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1982.

LeCompte, Tom. “The Disorient Express.” Air & Space, September 2008, 38–43. http://www.airspacemag.com/military-aviation/the-disorient-express-474780/.

Tversky, Amos, and Daniel Kahneman. “The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice.” Science 211, no. 4481 (1981): 453–58.

Глава 12. Облако возможностей

Cohen, L. Jonathan. “On the Psychology of Prediction: Whose Is the Fallacy?” Cognition 7, no. 4 (1979): 385–407.

–. “Can Human Irrationality Be Experimentally Demonstrated?” The Behavioral and Brain Sciences 4, no. 3 (1981): 317–31. Followed by thirty-nine pages of letters, including Persi Diaconis and David Freedman, «The Persistence of Cognitive Illusions: A Rejoinder to L. J. Cohen,» 333-34, and a response by Cohen, 331–70.

–. Knowledge and Language: Selected Essays of L. Jonathan Cohen, edited by James Logue. Dordrecht, Netherlands: Springer, 2002.

Gigerenzer, Gerd. “How to Make Cognitive Illusions Disappear: Beyond ‘Heuristics and Biases.’ ” In European Review of Social Psychology, Vol. 2, edited by Wolfgang Stroebe and Miles Hewstone, 83–115. Chichester, UK: Wiley, 1991.

–. “On Cognitive Illusions and Rationality.” In Probability and Rationality: Studies on L. Jonathan Cohen's Philosophy of Science, edited by Ellery Eells and Tomasz Maruszewski, 225–49. Poznari Studies in the Philosophy of the Sciences and the Humanities, Vol. 21. Amsterdam: Rodopi, 1991.

–. “The Bounded Rationality of Probabilistic Mental Models.” In Rationality: Psychological and Philosophical Perspectives, edited by Ken Manktelow and David Over, 284–313. London: Routledge, 1993.

–. “Why the Distinction between Single-Event Probabilities and Frequencies Is Important for Psychology (and Vice Versa).” In Subjective Probability, ed. George Wright and Peter Ay ton, 129–61. Chichester, UK: Wiley, 1994.

–. “On Narrow Norms and Vague Heuristics: A Reply to Kahneman and Tversky.” Psychological Review 103 (1996): 592–96.

–. “Ecological Intelligence: An Adaptation for Frequencies.” In The Evolution of Mind, edited by Denise Dellarosa Cummins and Colin Allen, 9–29. New York: Oxford University Press, 1998.

Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. “Discussion: On the Interpretation of Intuitive Probability: A Reply to Jonathan Cohen.” Cognition 7, no. 4 (1979): 409–11.

Tversky, Amos, and Daniel Kahneman. “Extensional versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment,” Psychological Review 90, no. 4 (1983): 293–315.

–. “Advances in Prospect Theory.” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 5 (1992): 297–323. http://psych.fullerton.edu/mbirnbaum/psych466/articles/tversky_kahneman_jru_92.pdf.

Vranas, Peter В. M. “Gigerenzer's Normative Critique of Kahneman and Tversky.” Cognition 76 (2000): 179–93.

Кода. Бора-Бора

Redelmeier, Donald A., and Robert J. Tibshirani. “Association between Cellular-Telephone Calls and Motor Vehicle Collisions.” New England Journal of Medicine 336 (1997): 453-58. http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJM199702133360701#t= article.

Thaler, Richard. “Toward a Positive Theory of Consumer Choice.” Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 1 (1980): 39–60. http://www.eief.it/butler/files/2009/11/ thaler80.pdf.

Общие

Kazdin, Alan E., ed. Encyclopedia of Psychology. 8 vols. Washington, DC: American Psychological Association, and New York: Oxford University Press, 2000.

Murchison, Carl, Gardner Lindzey, et al., eds. A History of Psychology in Autobiography. Vols. I–IX. Worcester, MA: Clark University Press, and Washington, DC: American Psychological Association, 1930–2007.

Выражение признательности

Я не смогу сказать точно, кого мне нужно поблагодарить. Проблемой является не дефицит благодарности, а избыток обязательств. Я должен столь многим людям, что не знаю, с кого начать. Но есть люди, без которых эта книга просто не появилась бы на свет, и я сосредоточусь на них.

Дэнни Канеман и Барбара Тверски для начала. Когда я познакомился с Дэнни в конце 2007 года, у меня не было желания написать о нем книгу. Когда же такое желание появилось, я пять лет его уговаривал. И даже потом он оставался настороженным. «Я не думаю, что можно описать нас двоих, не упрощая, не делая нас слишком значимыми и не преувеличивая различия между нашими характерами, – сказал он однажды. – Природа этой задачи такова, что мне интересно посмотреть, как вы с ней справитесь, хотя и недостаточно интересно, чтобы вас торопить».

С Барбарой совсем другая история. Еще в конце 1990-х годов по странному совпадению я учил, или пытался учить, ее сына Орена. Я не знал ни о том, что он сын Амоса Тверски, ни о существовании самого Амоса. Много позже