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26
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Fine P.E.M., ‘Ross’s a priori Pathometry – a Perspective’, Proceedings of the Royal Society of Medicine, 1975.
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Ross R., ‘The Mathematics of Malaria’, The British Medical Journal, 1911.
36
Reiter P., ‘From Shakespeare to Defoe: Malaria in England in the Little Ice Age’, Emerging Infectious Diseases, 2000.
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Биографические данные Маккендрика взяты из Gani J., ‘Anderson Gray McKendrick’, StatProb: The Encyclopedia Sponsored by Statistics and Probability Societies.
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Письмо GB 0809 Ross/106/28/60. Courtesy, Library & Archives Service, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. © Ross Family.
39
Письмо GB 0809 Ross/106/28/112. Courtesy, Library & Archives Service, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. © Ross Family.
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Heesterbeek J.A., ‘A Brief History of R0 and a Recipe for its Calculation’, Acta Biotheoretica, 2002.
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Биографические данные Кермака взяты из Davidson J.N., ‘William Ogilvy Kermack’, Biographical Memoirs of Fellows of the Royal Society, 1971; Coutinho S.C., ‘A lost chapter in the pre-history of algebraic analysis: Whittaker on contact transformations’, Archive for History of Exact Sciences, 2010.
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Fine P.E.M., ‘Herd Immunity: History, Theory, Practice’, Epidemiologic Reviews, 1993; Farewell V. and Johnson T., ‘Major Greenwood (1880–1949): a biographical and bibliographical study’, Statistics in Medicine, 2015.
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Fine P.E.M., ‘Herd Immunity: History, Theory, Practice’, Epidemiologic Reviews, 1993.
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Mallet H.-P. et al., ‘Bilan de l’épidémie à virus Zika survenue en Polynésie française, 2013–2014’, Bulletin d’information sanitaires, épidémiologiques et statistiques, 2015.
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Cao-Lormeau V.M. et al., ‘Guillain-Barré Syndrome outbreak associated with Zika virus infection in French Polynesia: a casecontrol study’, The Lancet, 2016.
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Stoddard S.T. et al., ‘House-to-house human movement drives dengue virus transmission’, PNAS, 2012.
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Kucharski A.J. et al., ‘Transmission Dynamics of Zika Virus in Island Populations: A Modelling Analysis of the 2013–2014 French Polynesia Outbreak’, PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 2016.
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Faria N.R. et al., ‘Zika virus in the Americas: Early epidemiological and genetic findings’, Science, 2016.
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Andronico A. et al., ‘Real-Time Assessment of Health-Care Requirements During the Zika Virus Epidemic in Martinique’, American Journal of Epidemiology, 2017.
54
Rozé B. et al., ‘Guillain-Barré Syndrome Associated With Zika Virus Infection in Martinique in 2016: A Prospective Study’, Clinical Infectious Diseases, 2017.
55
Fine P.E.M., ‘Ross’s a priori Pathometry – a Perspective’, Proceedings of the Royal Society of Medicine, 1975.
56
Ross R., ‘An Application of the Theory of Probabilities to the Study of a priori Pathometry – Part I’, Proceedings of the Royal Society A, 1916.
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61
Простая модель восприимчивых и зараженных Росса может быть записана следующим образом: dS/dt = —bSI, dI/dt = bSI, где b – скорость заражения. Максимальный прирост новых случаев заражения приходится на момент самого быстрого увеличения dI/dt, то есть когда вторая производная dI/dt равна нулю. Используя правило произведения, получаем: I = (3 – √3)/6 = 0,21.
62
Jackson A.C., ‘Diabolical effects of rabies encephalitis’, Journal of NeuroVirology, 2016.
63
Robinson A. et al., ‘Plasmodium-associated changes in human odor attract mosquitoes’, PNAS, 2018.
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