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16. The Wall Street Journal, May 17, 2008 (“more oil”); Jeffrey Curie et al., “A Lesson from Long-Dated Oil: A Steadily Rising Price Forecast,” Goldman Sachs Energy Watch, May 16, 2008 (“structural bull market”).

17. Edward Morse, “Oil Dot-com,” Lehman Brothers Energy Special Report, May 2008; interview with Edward Morse; Petroleum Intelligence Weekly, June 2, 2008 (“biggest ramification”).

18. New York Times, May 23, 2008 (“gouging the American public”); May 22, 2008 (“ethical compass”).

19. Interview, Bloomberg, June 16, 2008 (travel industry); interview with David Davis.

20. The New York Times, June 23, 2008, June 20, 2008 (“deliberately chosen”); The Wall Street Journal, June 23, 2008, Associated Press, June 20, 2008 (memo).

21. Interview with David Davis; Oil Bubble or New Reality: How Will Skyrocketing Oil Prices Affect the U. S. Economy: Hearings Before the Joint Economic Committee, U. S. Congress, 110th Congress, 2nd Session, June 25, 2008, p. 10.

22. California State Board of Equalization, Fuel Taxes Division, Statistics & Reports – 2008, at http://www.boe.ca.gov/sptaxprog/spftrpts08.htm.

23. The Pew Campaign for Fuel Efficiency, A History of Fuel Economy: One Decade of Innovation, Two Decades of Inaction, January 2, 2011.

24. Admiral Dennis Blair, testimony, U. S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation, May 3, 2007; Energy Security Leadership Council, Recommendations to the Nation on Reducing U. S. Oil Dependence, December 2006.

25. Interviews; James Hamilton, “Oil and the Economy: The Impact of Rising Global Demand on the U. S. Economy,” hearings, Joint Economic Committee, U. S. Congress, May 20, 2009, pp. 27–29; interview with Rick Wagoner, Petroleum Intelligence Weekly, July 14, 2008.

26. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2010 (Paris: OECD/IEA, 2010), pp. 605–11.

27. The New York Times, July 16, 2008; Petroleum Intelligence Weekly, July 21, 2008.

28. Benjamin S. Bernanke, “Economic Policy: Lessons from History,” speech, Center for the Study of the Presidency and the Congress, April 8, 2010; Hilary Till, “The Oil Markets: Let the Data Speak for Itself,” EDHEC Working Paper, October 2008, p. 22.

29. Financial Times, September 8, 2009.

30. Interview with Robert Shiller.

Глава 9. Подъем Китая

1. PetroChina Company Limited, Global Offering, March27, 2000.

2. Cheng Li, ed., China’s Emerging Middle Class: Beyond Economic Transformation (Washington, D. C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2010).

3. George W. Bush, Decision Points (New York: Crown, 2010), p. 427.

4. Interview with Zhou Qingzu; interview with Wang Tao; Eliot Blackwelder, “Petroleum Resources of China and Siberia,” Mining and Metallurgy 187, July 1922 (“never produce”).

5. H. C. Ling, The Petroleum Industry of the People’s Republic of China (Palo Alto: Hoover Institution Press, 1975), p. 237; Yu Qiuli, minister of petroleum from 1958 to 1964, from Yu Qiuli, YuQiuli: Huiyilu (Memoirs) (Beijing: Liberation Army Press, 1996), p. 1003, cited in Erica Downs, “China’s Quest for Oil Self-Sufficiency in the 1960s,” unpublished manuscript, 2001, p. 5 (“cut off”).

6. Erica Downs, “China’s Quest for Oil Self-sufficiency in the 1960s.”.

7. Ling, The Petroleum Industry of the People’s Republic of China, pp. 152–59, 188–89, 209, 230–39; interview with Zhou Qingzu.

8. Interview with Zhou Qingzu.

9. Henry A. Kissinger to the President, May 7, 1971; Kissinger to Ambassador Farland, June 22, 1971; Kissinger to Farland, late June 1971, the National Security Archive; Henry A. Kissinger, White House Years (Boston: Little Brown, 1979), pp. 738–41.

10. Erica Downs, “China’s Energy Rise,” in Brantly Womack, China’s Rise in Historical Perspective (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2010), p. 181 (“petroleum export – led”); Downs III, p. 24 (“must export”); Daniel Yergin and Joseph Stanislaw, The Commanding Heights: The Battle for the World Economy (New York: Simon and Schuster, 2002), ch. 7.

11. Joseph Fewsmith, Dilemmas of Reform in China: Political Confl ict and Economic Debate (New York: M. E. Sharpe, 1994), p. 17.

12. Interview.

13. Interview with Zhou Qingzu; PetroChina Company Limited, Global Off ering, p. 73.

14. Interview with Zhou Jiping.

15. Julie Jiang and Jonathan Sinton, Overseas Investments by Chinese National Oil Companies (Paris: International Energy Agency, 2011), p. 22; Erica Downs, Inside China Inc.: China Development Bank’s Cross-Border Energy Deals, John L. Thornton China Center Monograph Series, no. 3, March 2011 (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2011).

16. Moscow Times, September 28, 2010 (“new start”).

17. Interview (“throwing a match”); Frank J. Gaffney Jr., Statement of Frank J. Gaffney Jr., hearing, “National Security Implications of the Possible Merger of the China National Off-shore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) with Unocal Corporation,” before the Committee on Armed Services, House of Representatives, July 13, 2005, pp. 6, 8; interview with Fu Chengyu; Xinhua, October 12, 2006 (“talking about the win-win”); Chevron, “Chevron Acquires Interest in Three Deepwater Exploration Blocks in China,” September 7, 2010 (“welcome the opportunity”); interview.

18. Erica S. Downs, “Business Interest Groups in Chinese Politics: The Case of the Oil Companies” in China’s Changing Political Landscape: Prospects for Democracy, ed. Cheng Li (Washington, DC, Brookings Institution, 2008); interview with Zhou Jiping; Jiang and Sinton, Overseas Investments by Chinese National Oil Companies, pp. 7, 25; Erica Downs, “Who’s Afraid of China’s Oil Companies?” Energy Security: Economics, Politics, Strategy, and Implications (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2010), ch. 4; Fu Chengyu, speech, CERAWeek, February 2006; interviews.

Глава 10. Китай на полосе обгона

1. Interviews.

2. Far Eastern Economic Review, February 2004 (“certain powers”).

3. Time, June 28, 2004; Wall Street Journal, July 9, 2004.

4. Voice of America, July 29, 2010 (“lifeline of our commerce”).

5. Far Eastern Economic Review, April 2006; Wall Street Journal, October 4, 2010 (“hegemon”); Office of the Secretary of Defense, U. S. Department of Defense, “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2010”; Washington Post, July 31, 2010; See Wang Jisi, “China’s Search for a Grand Strategy,” Foreign Affairs, March – April 2011, p. 71 (“reckless”). For a discussion of the emergence of the “core interest” concept, see Michael Swaine, “China’s Assertive Behavior, Part 1, ‘On Core Interests, ’” China Leadership Monitor, No. 34 (2011).